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Brief overview of the RJ real estate market in 2018

Realestate

For 2018, the Brazilian real estate market is more optimistic. The interest rates for financing fell this year and home sales increased by 9.7% in 2017, according to data provided by the Brazilian Chamber of Construction Industry ( CBIC ), already passed by value first 2 months of 2018, which registered 10 % growth in sales, according to the same entity. And the forecast is that this trend will continue, with an increase in launches and sales.

In Rio de Janeiro, however, this is not how things are happening. After the improvement in the national economy, the Rio de Janeiro real estate market is still shy, reflecting, mainly, in the fall in property values. This behavior may seem quite interesting for those who intend to invest for the long term, but it requires caution. We made a basic overview of how the real estate buying and selling scenario is there. Check out!

Price drop

The average price of real estate in Rio has been falling since January 2017 and has already accumulated a drop of 3.8%. Only in January, the retraction was 0.4% in prices for sale compared to the previous month. For rent, the downward trend was the same, recording a drop of around 8% in the last twelve months. This is what Index Rio de Janeiro, a monthly survey carried out by Imovelweb, revealed.

This movement is justified, above all, by the effects of the economic crisis that have not yet been fully overcome by the population, especially by classes D, C and E. This generates an increase in supply in relation to demand, causing a contraction in values ​​when pricing each immobile.

The average annual profitability remained at 4%, which means that 24 years of rent are needed to recover the purchase expense.

Appreciation of each region

Although falling, the price per square meter in Rio remains the most expensive in the entire country, with an average value of R$9,719. For rent, the city is second only to São Paulo, with an average rental price of R$31.26/m².

The South Zone continues to be the most expensive region in the city. The average value per square meter there is around R$ 13,591/m², with Leblon as the most expensive neighborhood, not only in Rio, but in the country: anyone who wants to live in the region will pay around R$21,835/m², or will disburse approximately R$3,781 monthly for a 65m² apartment, if you choose to rent.

In fact, of the ten most valued neighborhoods, six are in the South Zone:

  1. Leblon: R$21,835m²
  2. Gavea: R$16,526m²
  3. Botanical Garden: R$15,997m²
  4. Rudder: R$13,331m²
  5. Copacabana: R$12,624m²
  6. São Conrado: BRL 12,062m²
  7. Barra da Tijuca: R$9,999m²
  8. Center: R$8,538m²
  9. Santa Teresa: R$7,960m²
  10. Tijuca: R$7,473m²

Recovery in 2019

This scenario of falling prices is tempting for those thinking about buying. And it really is, but for those on the other side, the situation is more complicated. Demand is quite weak which explains the drop in prices, obviously.

At the height of the housing boom in mid-2011, Rio saw an increase of more than 40% in 12 months. In 2017, the FipeZap Index showed a 4.45% decrease in residential properties, the biggest drop in the country.

The national real estate sector foresees an increase in demand thanks to the macroeconomic scenario and the credit incentive – Caixa reactivated the Pró-Cotista line at the beginning of the year, increased the mortgage loan limit and will receive R$15 billion in resources.

In Rio de Janeiro, however, the perspective for 2018 is lower prices and little demand. At the best forecast, the market will remain stable.

Since 2013, sales have fallen by up to 60% and last year the drop was around 30%. A cycle will start with the reheating of the Brazilian economy. In São Paulo, the improvement has been seen since 2017. But in Rio, the sector’s expectation is that this movement will only take place in 2019.

To try to improve this scenario and reduce the high offer, developers are adopting aggressive sales strategies, with progressive discounts, furniture on behalf of the company and even a premium car for those who close the deal. Long-term vision can be a good way at this time to think about investing in your own property.